Population density and cost thresholds for switching between anti-malaria interventions

Derek Willis, Nada Petrovic

The objective of this project is to use a modeling approach to identify the population density threshold at which  it would be more cost-effective to implement anti-malaria interventions targeting the larval stage of malaria-transmitting mosquitoes (e.g. larviciding, environmental management) rather than interventions that target adult mosquitoes (e.g. insecticide-treated nets, indoor residual spraying). We will first complete modeling/simulation to identify the population threshold for switching the intervention strategy for various scenarios. We will then examine how decision architecture tools can lead policy makers to make decisions consistent with these thresholds.


Major Findings

  • To be shared after publication.


Broader Impacts

  • Once completed, this project will provide a framework for how global funding towards anti-malaria programs should be allocated between anti-malaria interventions targeting the larval stage of mosquito development versus adult mosquitoes. As sub-Saharan Africa continues to experience a rapid rate of urbanization and the efficacy of interventions targeting the adult mosquitoes decreases (due to insecticide resistance and changes in mosquito behavior), it is important for these population thresholds to be identified in order to ensure that anti-malaria funding is allocated as efficiently as possible.


CRED2 Award (2010-2015): Funding was provided under the cooperative agreement NSF SES-0951516 awarded to the Center for Research on Environmental Decisions.